CFP Reveal 2 Reaction
Article By: A lot started to play out this weekend, lots of teams losing games that feel like “well that’s it” then you kind of look who else could jump them and you see some losses there as well. Specifically after Florida's loss I kind of thought they might be toast but then you just look around and there are a lot of possible ways they find themselves back inside the top 12.
The only 2 on this list that I think truly left themselves no chance after this weekend were Oklahoma now at four losses and North Carolina taking a third with no chance for a conference title.
As of now I still see 18 teams as reasonable possibilities, and 18 might be a stretch because of what a couple teams need. The top 18 minus Oklahoma and Florida then throw in the AAC champion if it isn’t FAU, and Old Dominion. If you want to count some possible surprising conference champions like an Iowa, Boston College, etc then you can extend that list a little more. By Thursday I could very well see this list shrinking to 14 or so.
While some need some craziness to happen, I don’t think it is out of the realm of possibility.
I saw mini tiers within the CFP ranks. Basically where maybe not completely interchangeable but at least close enough.
Overall no jaw dropping things for me here. I think the committee overall did a really good job. There are maybe a couple splitting hair type ranks that will sort out in the coming weeks.
Tier 1 The elites
1. Ole Miss (@ Mississippi State)
This shocks no one and shouldn’t until he loses. He locked up a playoff spot with the win over Florida, even with a loss he was easily in.
2. Clemson (@ Tennessee, @ South Carolina)
Again not an insane shock. Other than the team above him the only other undefeated power 4 team doesn't have the resume Clemson does.
Tier 2 The next best
3. Alabama (Finished)
It is a little semantics being here in the official rankings because they can’t hold the 3 seed. A big win over Oklahoma probably solidifies their spot even more as the eventual 5 seed unless they win the SEC. The only team probably to officially punch a ticket to the CFP, even though Ole Miss and maybe Clemson could lose out and still be in.
4. Texas (@ Kentucky sim win, vs. Texas A&M)
As with Alabama, being number 4 doesn’t fully mean much, other than it seems like a lock they host a home playoff game unless they drop a game to A&M.
Tier 3 - Probably safe but you still need to take care of business
5. Colorado (vs. Kansas, @ Oklahoma State)
A little surprised to see me at 5 to be honest, but with a few weeks left it will play itself out. I had Notre Dame, Oregon, and I think Missouri over me in the polls. But again, this is a little bit of a non-factor when you compare to Notre Dame and Missouri as they cant be higher in the bracket. But, it does show a little wiggle room if a conference championship loss comes into play.
6. Notre Dame (vs. USC)
That big circle around the USC game is coming up. I am not entirely sure he can stay in the playoffs with a loss but is 100% in with a win, although since the release a lot of things broke his way to maybe be able to make that happen.
7. Oregon ( @ Syracuse, @ Washington sim win)
If we are talking strictly resume and this season this makes sense. But I think we kind of know a couple spots higher is where he probably belongs, but this is a season 32 rank and resume. I think if he loses the conference title he should still be in, but if he drops one in the regular season and ends up not eligible for the conference title, that could be a different story.
8. Missouri (@Oklahoma, vs. South Carolina, vs. Mississippi State, @ Arkansas)
Missouri is the only SEC team I could see being on the outside with 2 losses. We all knew the schedule wasn’t a full on SEC schedule Alabama and Oklahoma being the 2 big games. And if he ends up losing both of them that really isn't any better than a Utah, Texas Tech, USC, etc.
Tier 4 - In... for now
9. Florida (vs. Florida State)
The blowout loss to LSU might have been the final straw. He had a chance to maybe save his season with his final 2 games being Ole Miss and Florida State but needed both and some help. Losing to Ole Miss was the dagger.
10. Tennessee (vs. Clemson)
He has to beat Clemson to be in. At 10 already he cant afford a third loss. As good as he has been who has he beat? A soon to be unranked Oklahoma in a 5-point win at home is the only key win. After that the big wins come via this team had a good Massey but bad season with 5-5 Boise State, 6-4 Kansas State, and 6-4 Georgia. The Clemson game is basically his first round playoff game. If he loses it and still finds his way in I would be surprised especially losing head to head to Florida.
11. Utah (@ Iowa State, vs UCF)
Beat up on a lot of teams this year, then finally dropped one. The Iowa State game is a must, and sitting at 11 right now he might need the conference title. I am a pound the table guy on the conference championship should only help not hurt, so if he wins out in the regular season and loses in the conference title he is right on the edge. LSU probably should jump him, but he stays ahead of Florida. He might be safe if he made it and lost, but he would be playing with fire.
12. LSU (@ Ball State)
The blowout win over Florida will move him above Florida and honestly above Utah even with the second loss. He seems safely in now, unless chaos hits the conference championships. This is the only one I really questioned as I would have had them above Utah and the 1 spot here mattered as one would be in one would be out, but as usual things played themselves out and Florida is gone and LSU will slide in.
Tier 5 - Needs some outside help
13. Oklahoma
Not a ton to say here, the CFP hopes ended this weekend with 2 losses.
14. Texas Tech (vs Oklahoma State, @ WVU sim win)
After LSU is definitely where I see the drop-off in teams where I think really have an argument. They have had a solid wins over Cincinnati and Iowa State but I don’t know if either of them really wow anyone. If they beat Colorado I think they are inside the top 10, even if they beat Baylor and were sitting at 9-1 with the only loss being to a top-10 team there is a real argument to give them the nod over Utah on the resume both losing to the same team and Tech having a slightly harder schedule.
15. USC (@ Notre Dame)
Oregon’s problem being the state of the Big 10 this year is also USC’s problem. I also think this is a prime example of where Oregon could be if they lost a game along the way. Only quad 1 game was a loss, but he does have a big chance to redeem it with a game against Notre Dame, possibly knocking them out and taking their place. They will be right on the borderline with a win over Notre Dame. Theoretically jumping ND, Oklahoma, and Florida based on how the block started. Would need to find his way in over 1 more team which is entirely possible. Him vs Texas Tech at 14-15 I would argue more about if it mattered, but a win over Notre Dame should have USC jump Tech no problem.
16. Iowa State (vs. Utah, @ Kansas State)
Texas Tech should have the inside track on them as they beat them head to head, but noting that Iowa State’s other loss was to current number 1 Ole Miss is definitely notable. Had he scheduled easier non conference and won he might be where Utah is right now. But, right now doesn’t matter a ton. If he beats Utah I think he vaults up to right on the cusp and has a chance to play his way in with a conference title. I don’t think he has the juice to make it in as a 10-2 team without a conference title. But it is worth noting if he does get to the conference title that 10-2 will come with a 4-2 quad 1 schedule.
17. FAU (@ Charlotte, vs Tulsa)
At the time this seemed a little controversial, but now no big deal. I would probably have had CMU above in this CFP ranking, but with the full thought that if both teams finished undefeated conference champs that FAU had the better resume and would be in. So overall the original rank above CMU not mattering a ton. That being said I think it does show that a 1 loss FAU would also be above a 1 loss CMU, and maybe even a 1 loss USF.
18. Northwestern (vs Michigan)
I see no path for him to make it in without pure chaos. The schedule was mostly a cakewalk. Pointing to big wins being Indiana and Wisconsin is kind of what you do for a 1 loss G5 school not a 1 loss Power 4 school. Great representation of Northwestern in his first year, but there isn’t enough there unless we have some shocking upsets down the stretch.
19. CMU
The loss may have catapulted him out of contention. He needs FAU to lose but even then it might not be enough as another American team and even ODU lurk.
20. North Carolina
This one is over as well after losing to Boston College.
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