Gambling Corner: Block 4
Article By: Now that game lines have, mostly, settled down with massey ratings after a couple blocks we will take a look at some upcoming games every Friday and pick against the spread and see how well we can do. Goal will be to get one game from each conference every week. The lines will fluctuate but will obviously be as of this writing.
The minimum will be to only choose games where each team has played at least 3 games, ideally 4. If there are no games that have minimum 3 games from each team there won’t be a pick.
American
Week 7
Florida Atlantic @ North Texas +28 O/U 63
Florida Atlantic is making a name for himself with a 3-0 start and some big point totals through three weeks. Drewwbacca and North Texas coming off a win looking to turn the Mean Green around coming in as massive underdogs.
I think the Mean Green have trouble stopping the Owls. This one moved from 25 to 28 on the Friday morning update. If you got FAU-25 good for you, but at 29 I am taking the Mean Green. Will also be on the under.
ACC
Week 7
North Carolina @ Georgia Tech +11.5 O/U 70.5
There could be a ton of offense in this one as every UNC game has been high scoring. Georgia Tech has the firepower to stick with him if he can limit the turnovers.
Unlike the FAU game this one moves in our favor. Give me Georgia Tech to cover 11.5. I might even sprinkle on the moneyline. Give me the over as well.
Week 8
Louisville @ Miami +7 O/U 55
Miami turning the season around since a week 1 thumping against Florida. Late game heroics earning them a win against San Diego State to save their CFP hopes.
This one will go a long way in determining who, likely, gets the right to face Clemson when all is said and done.
Yesterday this one sat at Louisville -4, but even after a win the spread moved to the Cardinals +7. I Still like Louisville, but I hope you got the number yesterday morning. On the over as well.
Big 12
Week 7
Colorado @ Kansas State +16.5 O/U 71.5
Arguably the first big game of Big 12 conference play. Kansas State’s 3-2 record is deceiving as they game to top teams of LSU and Tennessee.
Two high scoring offenses this will come down to which defense can make a couple stops. I will take Kansas State +16.5 and over 71.5.
Week 8
Cincinnati @ Arizona State +14.5 O/U 55
Cincy is off to a nice. The Arizona State running attack should be able to keep the game close enough to cover the 14.5.
I’ll also take the under in this one as neither team will fully air it out.
Big 10
Week 7
USC @ Penn State +28 O/U 49.5
Penn State’s Big 10 title hopes are low as they need to win out in order to get there after the UCLA loss. USV has come out firing so far, but it remains to be seen how impressive some of the early wins are.
Even with the high powered offense and the turnover forcing defense, it feels like free money to take Penn State +28.5 at home. The Nittany Lions and the over.
Week 8
Indiana @ Nebraska +3.5 O/U 55.5
Things have gone downhill since the Hoosiers opening win against San Diego State, that at this point may not have been as big of a win as we originally thought.
The Hoosiers did pick up a win over Maryland in the last block, but it was a winless Maryland.
Nebraska has went in the opposite direction. After a bad opening season loss to Tulane and Alabama they beat Illinois and Rutgers.
I think the wrong team is the 4 point favorite in this one. Ill take the Cornhuskers and the under.
Conference USA
Week 7
Western Kentucky @ UTEP -11.5 O/U 56.5
The Hilltoppers the only coach to stick around in the CUSA get the conference’s new coach on the rise.
I will buy into the hype and take UTEP to cover 11.5. Could see it being close for a bit and some late turnovers costing Western Kentucky. Will take the under as well.
Week 8
Sam Houston State @ Western Kentucky +23 O/U 58.5
Hate to get the same team in both games but the CUSA doesn’t have a lot of options.
Coming into the year people had Sam Houston State pegged as one of the conference front runners, but at 2-2 and already down a game in conference the Bearkats have to win out.
I think Sam Houston State wins this one, but I don’t think they cover the 23. The Hilltoppers and the over.
MAC
Week 8
Bowling Green @ Kent State +20.5 O/U 53
Unfortunately for the MAC in the 2 week stretch this is the only game that hit the 3 games for each team minimum.
Bowling Green off to a 2-2 start but the 2 losses came in games where the game was decided before kickoff with Alabama and Miami. The Falcons are off a big win over UCS as they head to Kent State.
It has been a bit of a rough start for the Golden Flashes, 0-3 with a shutout loss to Northwestern.
I will take the Falcons to cover. This is definitely a step down in competition from their first 4 games as they start conference play. I will also take the under.
Mountain West
Week 7
Colorado State @ San Jose State -6 O/U 46
Beercop’s Rams have yet to win under his reign, will it start now? Both teams didn’t do much in their ranked non conference tests, but the Spartans did shutout Marshall and pick up a conference win over Air Force.
I think San Jose State wins this spread dropped under a TD from 8 to 6, I love San Jose State at the 6. Give me the Spartans and the under.
Week 8
Oregon State @ UNLV +1 O/U 57
Oregon State fresh off a massive win against South Carolina heads to UNLV as slight underdogs.
UNLV’s lone loss came on the road at Penn State. Both teams have already had their fair share of tests to date.
But fresh off the high of the upset win against South Carolina, I think the Beavers fall short. I will take UNLV and the over.
Sticking with this even as I watch Oregon State dismantle Uconn.
SEC
Talk about a block. Week 7 alone has the massive games of Oklahoma vs Texas, Tennessee vs Florida, and LSU vs Ole Miss.
Week 7
Texas A&M @ Tulane -9 O/U 58
Originally went with the conference game of Tennessee vs Florida but that line feels so out of whack at Florida +24 and free money so I went with a non conference game.
Hosting the game will help Tulane for sure, but it is a big ask to beat Texas A&M, let alone beat them by two scores. I will Take A&M and would throw some on the moneyline. This seems like a toss up game. Give me the under.
Week 8
Tennessee @ Alabama +5 O/U 57.5
Tennessee has a great resume of wins to date. Bama coming off a tough road loss to Georgia returns home hoping to take out some anger on the Vols.
This one is a toss up and I’ll take the team getting over a field goal at home and the over.
Sun Belt
Week 7
Georgia Southern @ Marshall -27 O/U 59.5
Marshall shocked a lot of people with the dud against San Jose State. Seemed like more of an outlier than what we should expect, but this line is entirely too large regardless of the believe you have in Marshall.
Georgia Southern and the over.
Week 8
Appalachian State @ Syracuse -7
It has been a rough start for the Orange, but the Mountaineers haven’t fared much better. I think Syracuse’s team overall ability is too much for the Mountaineers as they cover the field goal.
I’ll also go under 63.5
Block 4 official picks
North Texas +28, Under
Georgia Tech +11.5, Over
Louisville -7, Over
Kansas State +16.5, Over
Arizona State +14.5 Under
Penn State +28, Over
Nebraska +3.5, Under
UTEP -11.5, Under
Western Kentucky +23, Over
Bowling Green -20.5, Under
San Jose State -6, Over
UNLV +1, Over
Texas A&M +9, Under
Alabama +5, Over
Georgia Southern +27, Over
Syracuse -7, Under
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