Random Discussions

[shel311]

WHO Director's media conference a few days ago:

To summarize, COVID-19 spreads less efficiently than flu, transmission does not appear to be driven by people who are not sick, it causes more severe illness than flu, there are not yet any vaccines or therapeutics, and it can be contained – which is why we must do everything we can to contain it. That’s why WHO recommends a comprehensive approach

[Cnasty]

The reproductive number – the number of secondary infections generated from one infected individual – is understood to be between 2 and 2.5 for COVID-19 virus, higher than for influenza.

I read that as more contagious

[nick]

from keeping track

USA May 14th, 10PM - 2929 Cases
USA May 15th, 10pm - 3689 cases

obviously 700 isnt a lot to 300 mil but the fact you only had 2900ish and then it jumped 25% in 1 day. in 18 days you guys will be well past 150k

[shel311]

Per Wiki, we had a 23% increase today.

Not ideal but that's the lowest % increase since 2/27 so that's a good sign I'd think.

[cougnix]

Our governor just closed bars and restaurants for a period of time. Carry out and delivery are still allowed

[nick]

most of the 20k will obviously be fine.. but in this very moment.. you have about a 45% chance of dying in Italy.. only 2300 officially recovered and 1800 deaths. Just fucking awful.

[shel311]

I wonder just what the heck happened in Italy for it to blow-up like it has compared to other countries in that area.

[nick]

old population of smokers who are very intimate when interacting with others + tourism with the vatican and shit

[nick]

Africas gonna be decimated. I watched a ted talk about how they had 130 doctors in the area where Ebola hit (3 western countries i believe) and 13 died. In comparison Dallas Hospital has 1000 docs (or docs/nurse). point is the continent is under prepared and its begun there.

Pretty sure we'll be adding me to the confirms tomorrow. gonna sleep on it and see.

[Cnasty]

Supposed breaking rumor now is Trump will announce a 2 week nation wide quarantine tomorrow.

Only groceries/pharmacy runs etc. true essentials.

We shall see.

[nick]

Ya Toronto is locking down soon

[nick]

[nick]

Italy is registering 1 death due to coronavirus every 4 minutes

[GeorgesGoons]

Italy is registering 1 death due to coronavirus every 4 minutes

You are following this a lot more than me. But I read that most of the deaths are 80-90 year olds.


As far as Africa, let's hope Boka Haram and Al Shabab get decimated by this illness

[shel311]

Looks like we had less new cases yesterday than the day before, which would be huge if we continue that trend and flatten that curve:

[ReignOnU]

I don't put too much stock in that. I'm mostly interested in what we see when this increased testing starts this week.

[shel311]

I don't put too much stock in that. I'm mostly interested in what we see when this increased testing starts this week.

I tend to agree as it's just 1 day, 1 data point if you will.



I guess it's still better than the alternative, I guess. Having a day where the increase was the lowest in 2+ weeks is a good thing even if it's not sustainable in the short term.

[shel311]

If you take out the Washington numbers, there's been roughly 3k cases and 22 deaths, which would be a 0.7% mortality rate

Also, since South Korea started testing the shit out of everyone, wanna guess what the mortality rate is there?


0.7%


Again, not downplaying that number, but it's a heck of a lot different than 2-3%.

There's an article circulating the news sites today suggesting that the true mortality rate in China is 0.5%.




There's also extensive research done on that Diamond Princess cruise ship fiasco.

Final numbers were 3711 on board, 712 infected and 7 deaths, all 70 and older.

But I think when you factor in this was before the real panic and also everyone basically stacked on top of each other on this ship, and the final numbers showed that 19% on the ship were infected, and half of that 19% never showed any symptoms. Also, the ship's average age was 58 and 1/3 of the cruisers were 70+, so I'm sure that 19% is inflated a good bit as well due to that.

[GeorgesGoons]

My sister in law just called me, she's a teacher, and she said it's sounding like school will be out till early May. What about you other teachers? AJ?

[ReignOnU]

I think we need a solid 3 weeks from the point that all states are on board. So that would put us into mid-May.