shel311 wrote:Never understood the kick the FG idea here.
Gives you a chance. Have to kick it eventually. Make it, and get the onside and get a new set of downs.
But even if you get the onside kick, you're further away from a TD than they were before kicking the FG.
Just throw the ball into the end zone each play from the 30. Not sure why you kick a FG then hope to get the ball back 15-20 yards further away then you already were.
You are saving time and getting the field goal out of the way. Time is your biggest obstacle that late in the game and you need two scores. 3 plays throwing into the end zone from the 30 is going to take at least 20 seconds off the clock. A fg is going to take 4-5 seconds and it is most likely a higher percentage play. Depending on your kicker of course. You are still going to end up throwing into the end zone if you recover the on side kick. You are just putting it off until the last moment.
How are you actually saving time though? 3 failed throws to the endzone before or after the FG equate to the same thing, a loss though.
I prefer to make the endzone throws from the 30 as opposed to the 50 or even the opponent's 40 or something like that.
I guess my point is, other than wanting to throw it 30 yards and not 50-60, is that you're going to need to connect on a long throw and an onside kick to have a shot to win, so there's really no difference on doing that down 10 or down 7.
Three attempts into the end zone from the 30 has too many variables. Interception, sack, fumble or tackled in bounds and forced to use a time out. A field goal attempt is a higher percentage play.
Again that is dependent on your kicker. Tampa Bay definitely should attempt three throws if in that situation instead of relying on a kick.
OracleHCR wrote:Three attempts into the end zone from the 30 has too many variables. Interception, sack, fumble or tackled in bounds and forced to use a time out.
But my point is, if you kick the FG first, you still have those same variables. Any of those things happen you lose the game, whether you're kicking the FG first or not.
And I'd submit those variables come more into play on 3 attempts from your own 40 compared to 3 attempts from the opponent's 30.
OracleHCR wrote:Three attempts into the end zone from the 30 has too many variables. Interception, sack, fumble or tackled in bounds and forced to use a time out.
But my point is, if you kick the FG first, you still have those same variables. Any of those things happen you lose the game, whether you're kicking the FG first or not.
And I'd submit those variables come more into play on 3 attempts from your own 40 compared to 3 attempts from the opponent's 30.
Are you going to kick the tying FG from your 40? You would then still need plays to get into FG range, if time is a factor.
Agreed Bernie. There is no guarantee with my way that you'd have enough time to run that 1 play to get into FG range...but I still think that gives you better odds than the throw the ball 20 yards and hope to pull a MIami Hurricanes 15 laterals in 30 seconds type TD.