The formula is extremely easy to understand, actually. The method of organizing and applying the data - especially since it is dynamic - is not. I think you are too busy thinking about how he gets the end result and not the data itself.nick wrote:i wish i could figure out Masseys formula. I love doing those kinda stats (nerd like that) but i tried reading his formula and it seems like a bunch of gibberish
That said, I can't figure out what his initial data values are. Everything seems to hinge on his Game Outcome Function formula. However, even to get that, you'd have to know what base probability he is working with just to get that. You can't just say that a team that won 27-20 will win a rematch under the same conditions 69% of the time; you need to have some empirical data. He won't share that because, well, then he'd be out of a hobby/job.
