shel311 wrote:Has Elon given reasons for continually missing the mark on projections/being cash flow positive?
there are always 'reasons'. reasons are irrelevant... there is do or don't do. the thing that elon has going for him is he actually successfully launched a car biz from ground floor. which is basically unheard of in modern civilization. just about everyone who has ever tried that has failed. and while he misses all his dates/targets, typically just about everything he says is going to happen eventually happens.
so people just chalk it up to his personality and don't really think about the dates/#'s too literally.
the problem becomes when it lasts for years and fund managers need to show performance. patience runs out and people start to bail. but in the longer term view of the actual stock, its behaved very normally for a huge winning name. it went from 15-250 in like 4 years and then went sideways for 2 or 3. thats called 'basing' all stocks 'base'. the fact the stock never cratered back down to 100 is pretty amazing (not to say it still couldn't). typically growth companies go thru major advances like that then correct 70-80% then need to recreate themselves and create a new revenue stream/product to become another leader. it happened with AAPL with ipod to iphone to ipad etc. with AMZN from selling books to selling everything to now ruling the world, to NFLX with delivering DVD's to streaming to creating content. the point is once you make the first BIG PUSH, the air typically comes out and then you have to recreate another product to be a HUGE leading stock. TSLA had that first run up then just kinda coasted/floated/based up here and now they need to show that the model 3 is the next thing to push it higher. but with stocks stuff like that is built in years in advance so its somewhat concerning the next leg higher hasn't happened yet because everyone on earth already knows about the model 3 and the potential of it. so the disconnect is will he actually come thru or not.
