Honestly, it's all about physics and geometry....and just trial and error.
First of all, your guy's finishing rating will have an impact, as will how good the goalie's numbers. Sometimes, if you're playing a guy like Cech (Chelsea) or Gigi Buffon (Juventus), you can have the best finisher in the world and he will still get a good touch to the shot.
Secondly, it's about the angle of the shot. If you're on the left side and you aim at the far post, you give the goalie more of a chance to get it, because the ball has to travel further. If you're taking a shot like that, you'll want to take a finesse shot if it's an extreme angle (R1 modifier) but if it's not, rip it.
Third, it's about power. The more power, the higher the trajectory. If you hit a shot HIGH, it's easier for the keeper to get to because he's already upright. If you shoot it softer, you can actually make one of two things happen: one, you will get it past him before he can get down; or two, he might get a touch to it....and spill it right into the path of a teammate, or in a place where you get a chance to get to it.
Best ADVICE I can give you is, go to the practice arena, practice coming in at different angles, and just get a feel for it. I've played the game for 7 years now....and I STILL struggle some matches to score. I had a match last night where I had 23 shots, 18 of them on target....and I won 1-0 on a headed goal in the final minute off a corner kick. Then you'll have a match where you only get four shots and they all go in.
Just remember if you get a breakaway to watch the goalie....if the goalie charges too much, chip his ass from about 18-23 yds out and watch him flail at it as it soars over his head
S14: N Texas 7-1
S15: Wake 8-5
S16-21: Washington 9-4, 10-3, 8-5, 9-4, 7-6, 6-7
S22: Ohio 8-5
S23: ECU 12-2
S24-26: Kentucky 8-5, 5-7, 5-7
Career: 102-61
