NDL Forum

Just so we're clear, recession and depression are nothing alike.

A recession is 2 quarter decline from a peak. What our economy has done over the last couple of years has been great. So good in fact, that as an economist, you'd be crazy not to bet on a recession occurring. Hard to imagine continued increases on the scale we were seeing.

A depression is over a longer period of time and includes high unemployment and major loss of income. While today, we have the 2 key indicators, it seems mostly likely that a large portion of jobs will return and income has been propped up in the short-term to bridge the gap. Far from perfect, but the kind of measure that is needed to avoid a depression.

Also consider that America (and the world to an extent) has a history of coming out of events stronger. Businesses are forced to adapt and to be creative to maximize their profits during tough times. That leads to innovation and efficiency increases for the future. For those that lose positions/businesses in the service sector, they'll find opportunity in something else. It could be in logistics as ecommerce takes another step forward. It could be in manufacturing as companies try to bring things back here to avoid future issues. It could be in another area of supply chain that supports dual manufacturing. No matter what comes out of it this, I'm pretty certain that the future isn't a depression.

10 years after the Kansas flu was the Great Depression.

nick wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:43 am If u wanna go out in June just go out now. You’re gonna be apart of the problem regardless you might as well speed it up

I am not saying I will go out and be part of the problem.
I am saying I hope we are done with it at that point.
George was right, you read way into things.

Read things for how they are wrote, period.

The_Niddler wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:15 pm

nick wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:43 am If u wanna go out in June just go out now. You’re gonna be apart of the problem regardless you might as well speed it up

I am not saying I will go out and be part of the problem.
I am saying I hope we are done with it at that point.
George was right, you read way into things.

Read things for how they are wrote, period.

You think this issue will be gone in 2 months????? China’s 5 months into it and still have cases and the US is like 1 month (if u include Wash Cali) or 2 weeks if you look everywhere else.

Let me assure you I’m well aware of what you said. I only said what I said so that I didn’t just flat out call you a retard.

Can we start the "COVID-19 Rational Conversation" thread soon...

What’s rational? Sit at home and wait it out. There’s rational.

Anything that hints at the slightest bit of optimism Nick comes in and shits all over it. I love ya bud but it’s ok to think positive and see how things play out

dakshdar wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:22 pm Can we start the "COVID-19 Rational Conversation" thread soon...

What? You don't find this thread entertaining?

On a different note, I'm not seeing that block user option anywhere....

wdoupis wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:25 pm Anything that hints at the slightest bit of optimism Nick comes in and shits all over it. I love ya bud but it’s ok to think positive and see how things play out

What positivity has come from this? Your country has 300k confirmed cause idiots can’t follow a simple rule. I don’t live in some meaningless hick town in Nebraska.

I’ll be positive when there’s a vaccine.

Take this in.. America got 300k confirms in 2 weeks with a shoddy system that is still struggling to test. No other country has that including Germany that has tested 1 million people to a 7% positive test.

It’s insane. Kumbaya tho

holy shit, this is literally the worst thread in the history of our boards

there has never been a close second.

what the fuck is going on... sooooooooo many experts in here about sooooooo many things cuz interwebz

go learn a fucking language or do some pushups... fuck

nick wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:15 pm 10 years after the Kansas flu was the Great Depression.

Drought, significant debt, uninsured banks...all of those were major contributors to the Great Depression. You do realize that immediately following the Spanish Flu was the "roaring 20s," which was nearly a decade of massive growth?

DRiccio21 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:30 pm holy shit, this is literally the worst thread in the history of our boards

there has never been a close second.

what the fuck is going on... sooooooooo many experts in here about sooooooo many things cuz interwebz

go learn a fucking language or do some pushups... fuck

Was a bit over 260 in early Feb. 242 this morning. Built a nice home gym in my garage and picked up a basketball hoop the day after shit went down in the NBA. Figured we were heading for a lot of time at home and wanted to think ahead. (also grabbed 2 new iPads for the kids). Threw it down on 9.5' yesterday, if we keep these measures in place for another month, I might be dunking on 10' when I turn 41 in June!

NY hospitalizations...down
NY ICU patients...down
NY new cases...down

Positives to see

Well unless we have advancements comparable to Automabiles in the 20s... Iunno

DRiccio21 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:30 pm holy shit, this is literally the worst thread in the history of our boards

there has never been a close second.

what the fuck is going on... sooooooooo many experts in here about sooooooo many things cuz interwebz

go learn a fucking language or do some pushups... fuck

Your “joke of the week” over a homophobic slur was pretty laughable.

nick wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:36 pm Well unless we have advancements comparable to Automabiles in the 20s... Iunno

Planes, trains, automobiles... none of it is relevant. The Spanish Flu didn't cause the Great Depression... that's the point we're dealing with here.

Cnasty wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:36 pm NY hospitalizations...down
NY ICU patients...down
NY new cases...down

Positives to see

It's good for sure. Just hope it's not due to irregularities in reporting through the weekend. Some of the weekend stats have been goofy at all levels.

Cnasty wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:36 pm NY hospitalizations...down
NY ICU patients...down
NY new cases...down

Positives to see

We're not projecting 2 million plus to die any more.

That seems like a positive.

https://twitter.com/Alicia_Smith19/stat ... 5826682885

Follow that and read her thread if you want an update on the changes with the model. A lot of stat changes highlighted.

10 days away from the peak and people wanna be positive...

I’m positive a lot more people are gonna die.