Fanduel / Draft Kings Discussion

[shel311]

Probably the 4th or 5th night in a row i'm teetering right on the brink, and i've come up short each time.

All I have left is Vazquez, so 6 of 7 nights of losing is basically a definite after a closer look, didn't realize the Clippers/Magic still had a game, forgot about that one.

Well, that should do it for me, it was fun, except for all of that losing.

[trendon]

Secured 80% profit margin on the 50/50's and now going for 100% overall margin in the GPP ... riding on DeAndre Jordan. A good night and my first clean sweep in a while after some shutouts and splits.

[trendon]

Well, I'm getting the hang of the GPP/tournament games. As you guys said, it takes a different mindset. While winning the 50/50's is kinda brute force, winning the GPP's needs some thought. I had a very low used lineup and they all did at least average. In turn, I placed. Now the key will be to get smarter and place higher.

Chalmers 1.9% (45.75)
Harden 4.8% (39.5) [Was hoping for 51+]
Hood 5.3% (17) [did not get 5x value]
Humphries 3.2% (38)
Jordan 3.3% (25 at the half)
Vazquez 37.2% (32.5)
Josh Smith 19.4% (34.25)
Mo Williams 39.1% (32.5)

[DRiccio21]

wow, i have been out all night but i just came home and saw i put up 318 points. holy shit, still only good enough for 15th in 120 but still a winning night and a big score

[Cnasty]

Put up 271 which on the norm is a winning night in all my 50/50s, not tonight.

Streak over!

[DRiccio21]

i didn't look too close into things but there were some monster numbers out there last night

[shel311]

Put up 271 which on the norm is a winning night in all my 50/50s, not tonight.

Streak over!

Doh! I scored 272, never a good sign if I outscore you!!

I feel like I get 2 guys or so every night that puts up their season low, seems almost impossible to do so just about 20 games in. Or teh guy who has been consistent for quite some time, i'll have 2-3 of those guys put up their 1st subpar games in quite some time almost nightly.

Last night it was Marc Gasol's turn, season low 19.9. He'd scored 30+ in 8 of his last 9, Shel Jinx got em!!!

[Cnasty]

i didn't look too close into things but there were some monster numbers out there last night

I just did a quick perusal of my tournies and the winners were averaging around 340 in 1st place.

Sullinger and Jabari got me last night. My risk on Zeller paid off but the cheapness I got from him went to Jimmy Butler who just had an ok night by his price standards.

Only 3 games tonight so perfect time to possibly take a night off and get back to a new winning streak tomorrow.

[shel311]

It seems like the low end I've seen to win a 50/50 is around 240, while the high end has been 275 ish(last couple of nights).

250-260 or so seems around average for the midpoint of a 50/50, which is why it's so confusing to trot out BM projected lineups of 280-300 just about every night, but also win 50/50s less than 40% of the time.

[Cnasty]

Yea I have never lost in putting up as much as I did last night but one of those nights where there monster scores and I got squeezed out. I have scored less than that in the 240ish range and have won before.

Just one of those big value nights where I missed some guys like Teletovic and McDaniels it seems.

[shel311]

Yea, I had McDaniels and Vazquez go for 30+, which is solid at their price, and Wade for 44 as well.

But Brewer and Gasol combined for 36, when i'm guessing they were projected for 65-70, that did me in.

[trendon]

Well, I have four of the top five value plays on the board. Let's see how this works.

32.17 57.45 Jose Calderon Submit PG NYK CLE $5,600
32.81 44.33 Jrue Holiday Submit PG NOR @ GSW $7,400
16.39 54.62 CJ Watson Submit PG IND @ POR $3,000
34.99 47.93 Tyreke Evans Submit SG NOR @ GSW $7,300
23.90 45.96 Harrison Barnes Submit SF GSW NOR $5,200
46.20 39.83 Anthony Davis Submit PF NOR @ GSW $11,600
28.55 51.92 Amare Stoudemire Submit PF NYK CLE $5,500
24.23 56.35 Omer Asik Submit C NOR @ GSW $4,300
239.24 Total 8 $49,900

[shel311]

I somehow squeaked out 20th out of 40 in 1 of my few plays of my last $8 last night, gonna put together a weird GPP type lineup to trot out there for my one last hoorah for now.

[trendon]

And submitting this into a $12 GPP

35.18 40.44 Damian Lillard Submit PG POR IND $8,700
16.39 54.62 CJ Watson Submit PG IND @ POR $3,000
26.46 43.38 Wesley Matthews Submit SG POR IND $6,100
20.39 39.98 Iman Shumpert Submit SG NYK CLE $5,100
20.50 51.26 Shawn Marion Submit SF CLE @ NYK $4,000
46.20 39.83 Anthony Davis Submit PF NOR @ GSW $11,600
23.97 48.92 Marreese Speights Submit PF GSW NOR $4,900
28.97 44.56 Andrew Bogut Submit C GSW NOR $6,500
218.07 Total 8 $49,900

[nick]

I bet Davis over 11 rebounds so goooo davis!

[shel311]

Settled into my morning routine at work, went on BM, and I usually spend about 10-15 minutes in the morning just to get an idea of guys I may like and end up adding 2 or 3 before I get a working lienup going around lunchtime.

Added 2 guys to my roster only to realize...oh yea, I'm done here, no money left in the FD account

[Cnasty]

You will have deposited by lunchtime.

Book it.

[shel311]

You will have deposited by lunchtime.

Book it.

I'm tired, man. This has broken me down!!!

Granted, I just threw together a random lineup last night for my last $2, but we scored 230, projected 269. That's 5 straight nights I go 25 or more below my projection.

I'd be interested to get Reign or Dave's take on how accurate these projections are over a range of time. I'm wondering how much data i need for a large enough sample size to safely conclude the projections are inflated lol. I've gone under projection 16 of 22 nights, with the last 5 nights being very, very bad.

[shel311]

I bet Davis over 11 rebounds so goooo davis!

Winner! His statline was ridiculous.

If he played in the East, he'd win the MVP this year.

[Cnasty]

Well, at least we wont be tripping over each other in BM anymore and my lineup will be so lonely as "Lineup #1"