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Re: College / NFL Betting Thread
Posted: Mon Sep 20, 2010 12:57 pm
by ReignOnU
DRiccio21 wrote:
the most important rules to know about gambling are:
1) only do it for fun, because no matter how much you think you know... you know nothing.
- Yup, 100% good here. I've said it before, I just do it for the fun and if I break even at the end of the season, I'd consider that an incredible success.
2) people rarely walk away a winner. by far the exception. its the principle that keeps casinos in business. you don't stop playing til you have no money left and even if you do walk away you'll keep coming back til you lose.
- At 10% juice, betting coin flips, you'll eventually lose. I definitely see that.
2a) the book always wins.
- Yup, that's the juice. You give me $10 on 4 coin flips and go 2-2, you get $18, I get $22. Good deal.
3) never chase
- This is going to be the kicker for me and one that I'm sure I'll learn the hard way. I've been fortunate over the last year that it hasn't cost me... but I'm sure it will. So I do routinely think about trying to lay off. I chased Sat night, but I had planned on playing the 4 games anyway. I just played them differently than I would have, which is where I should have checked myself.
Re: College / NFL Betting Thread
Posted: Mon Sep 20, 2010 2:17 pm
by nick
i just put $145 on SF ML lol.. go me!
Re: College / NFL Betting Thread
Posted: Mon Sep 20, 2010 4:08 pm
by VeniVediV1ci
nick wrote:i just put $145 on SF ML lol.. go me!
jesus. Reign, if you ever want to learn about money management just do the opposite of our canadian friend
I'm just hoping the NO people hit this line up big by kickoff
Re: College / NFL Betting Thread
Posted: Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:24 pm
by VeniVediV1ci
SF +5
Re: College / NFL Betting Thread
Posted: Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:30 pm
by trendon
VeniVediV1ci wrote:SF +5
I am with you, but look at this fucking line at BoDOg
San Francisco 49ers +6 (-115)
Re: College / NFL Betting Thread
Posted: Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:47 pm
by nick
VeniVediV1ci wrote:nick wrote:i just put $145 on SF ML lol.. go me!
jesus. Reign, if you ever want to learn about money management just do the opposite of our canadian friend
I'm just hoping the NO people hit this line up big by kickoff
There's a reason I'm betting that much.
Re: College / NFL Betting Thread
Posted: Mon Sep 20, 2010 9:04 pm
by packsyD22
I am new to thise whole betting thing, so I am prob way off on my assesment but I just look at NO being a MUCH better team and their record away from New Orleans under Sean Payton is pretty solid.
Re: College / NFL Betting Thread
Posted: Mon Sep 20, 2010 10:14 pm
by VeniVediV1ci
packsyD22 wrote:I am new to thise whole betting thing, so I am prob way off on my assesment but I just look at NO being a MUCH better team and their record away from New Orleans under Sean Payton is pretty solid.
yeah i honestly can't explain much about playing SF here.
They have made some boneheaded mistakes that you really can't make when you play such a great team, but I feel like the NFL is all about overreactions and people would overreact to SF getting blown out in Seattle when they really didn't play as badly as the score showed.
I made the line 8, but seeing it below a touchdown made me think Vegas/Costa Rica/whoever makes the line was tipping their cap on getting a great effort from SF and for some reason I like the punishment of taking bad teams
Re: College / NFL Betting Thread
Posted: Mon Sep 20, 2010 10:34 pm
by packsyD22
Doh!!
Re: College / NFL Betting Thread
Posted: Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:05 pm
by TEEwade
It's crazy how they do it, but the last I saw was the Saints -5 and sure enough its 19-14 in the 4th quarter with 13 mins. That is a lot of time but still they are so dead on with these spreads nearly every game its scary.
Re: College / NFL Betting Thread
Posted: Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:21 pm
by packsyD22
Time to go make me some money Brees.
Re: College / NFL Betting Thread
Posted: Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:57 pm
by trendon
trendon wrote:VeniVediV1ci wrote:SF +5
I am with you, but look at this fucking line at BoDOg
San Francisco 49ers +6 (-115)
6-2 +3.80
Re: College / NFL Betting Thread
Posted: Tue Sep 21, 2010 3:06 pm
by VeniVediV1ci
VeniVediV1ci wrote:VeniVediV1ci wrote:Week one NDLrecords (pre-game posts from this thread):
Tren 3-0
VVV 2-3
Nick 3-8-1
jsence 2-3
huskerkev 0-1
TEE 0-2
reign 5-7
jake 2-2
combined: 17-26 (39.5%) -11.60u
-$1,160.00 if we bet $100/game
Week Two:
Tren 0-1 (3-1)
VVV 2-4 (4-7)
Nick 6-5-1 (9-13-2)
jsence (2-3)
huskerkev (0-1)
TEE 2-9 (2-11)
reign 10-4 (15-11)
jake 0-4-1 (2-6-1)
block 1-1
DrTom 1-1
buckeye 1-1
Week Two: 23-30 (43.4%) -10u
Combined: 40-56 (41.7%) -21.6u
Tren 2-1 (5-2)
VVV 5-2 (9-9)
Nick 6-5-1 (15-18-3)
jsence 3-0-1 (5-3-1)
huskerkev 0-0 (0-1)
TEE 1-0 (3-11)
reign 6-10 (21-21)
jake 0-0 (2-6-1)
block 0-0 (1-1)
DrTom 1-1 (2-2)
buckeye 3-2 (4-3)
Stimp 1-0
packsy 2-3
Week Three: 30-24-2 (55.6%) +3.6u
Combined: 70-80-6 (46.7%) -18u
Notes:
-Great job by the group this week as we finally won more than we lost. Some records like Tom's and Stimp's are better than they look because they've only played exotics, but I'm still counting everything as -110 for simplicity. Let's get it this week!
Re: College / NFL Betting Thread
Posted: Tue Sep 21, 2010 4:25 pm
by ReignOnU
Back to even through 3 weeks... which means down, lol.
It's all good though 42 games and I'm a solid as a coin flip.
Thankfully my unit strat has me up quite a bit... maybe this is the weekend that I'll try to just increase my unit size and decrease my games to see how profitable that can be. It almost seems like it washes out.
Re: College / NFL Betting Thread
Posted: Tue Sep 21, 2010 9:28 pm
by trendon
I am 6-2 IF you count my post about Buff/UCF under. Obviously, I played that.
Re: College / NFL Betting Thread
Posted: Tue Sep 21, 2010 9:41 pm
by VeniVediV1ci
trendon wrote:I am 6-2 IF you count my post about Buff/UCF under. Obviously, I played that.
i counted it, but I've searched this thread for your 6 winners and only found 5.
I posted that I needed your help to find it when I wrapped up week 2
Re: College / NFL Betting Thread
Posted: Tue Sep 21, 2010 10:05 pm
by trendon
Maybe I counted one in my head? I don't know.
Re: College / NFL Betting Thread
Posted: Wed Sep 22, 2010 10:10 am
by ReignOnU
I haven't looked at the lines yet, but the matchups for this weekend definitely look intriguing.
Re: College / NFL Betting Thread
Posted: Wed Sep 22, 2010 5:25 pm
by packsyD22
VVV I had the O in NYG/Indy and Indy -5.
Lost my two parlay bets and the Frisco game Monday night. Should be 2-3 as of right now.
Re: College / NFL Betting Thread
Posted: Wed Sep 22, 2010 5:29 pm
by VeniVediV1ci
packsyD22 wrote:VVV I had the O in NYG/Indy and Indy -5.
Lost my two parlay bets and the Frisco game Monday night. Should be 2-3 as of right now.
my bad buddy, updated above