Who's watching Colts-Patriots???

[Matt90210]

Exactly Hart. The more I think about the call, the more I like it. You've got the best QB in the league on your team and you only need 2 yards to win the game. If this was a playoff game, I think Bill would punt, but this was a regular season game. The Jets have disappeared and Miami poses little threat in the long run, so the Pats are looking at a division title already.

Did they blow a first round bye and hand it to Cincy? Possibly.

Anyway, if this ball is marked correctly, Bellichick is the big man on campus for having the balls to go for it. Now he looks like a fool who happens to be one of the best coaches in my lifetime.

[ajalves]

stupid call. Slice it any way you want. Eventually they are going to need their defense to step up and make that stop from somwwhere around Indy's own 25 yard line. As they say there are 3 phases to every team .....clearly the Pats dont have much confidence in their defense

[Cnasty]

clearly the Pats dont have much confidence in their defense

Which is why he had more confidence in his offense and went for it. I agree punting was the right thing to do and make Peyton earn his magical game winning drive, but I dont think its as horrible a call as some have made it out to be.

The worse thing was their management of their timeouts and not being able to challenge the play which probably would have stayed either way.

Blame Faulk, not Belichick.

[ajalves]

my point is they'll need their defense when it matter in the playoffs

lets see what they can do now

i mean they held the colts to 14 points for 3 1/2 quarters.

dumb move in my opinion

[trendon]

It all comes down to this. What do you trust more?

1. Tom Brady and Kevin Faulk to gain two yards?
2. The defense to stop Peyton Manning and the Colts?

With the two best quarterbacks in the game, I am going to have no faith in EITHER defense.

[ajalves]

they had played him well most of the game......

[trendon]

they had played him well most of the game......

You are the second person to say that and I don't know what the hell either one of you are talking about. They had done nothing of the sort after halftime. He ripped them apart.

[Matt90210]

they had played him well most of the game......

Until the 4th quarter when they were gassed and Indy had 2 TOs (including the 2 min warning).

Excellent and ballsy call. I like it.

[shel311]

i dont think the call is HALF as bad as people are making it out to be. Jack Del Rio is a fucking genius b/c he told MJD to stop at the 1 when they were losing. We're praising him and abusing Belicek..

I think there's a HUGE difference between the 2.

I'd say the odds of the Jags not making or being able to attempt that FG with no time left are WAYYYYYYYYY lower than the odds of the Pats not converting a 4th and 2.

And this was evidenced by the Jets intentionally letting MJD score on that play. I assume that's what they were doing since thsoe 2 or 3 guys did nothing to try and stop it.

[trendon]

According to Advanced NFL Stats, it wasn't a ballsy call at all, but the correct one.

Key Notes from Below Quote

If You Go For It

- A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time.
- If they make it, the game is over.
- In a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position.
- Using probability math, you should win 79% of the time in this situation if you go for it.

If You Punt

- A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34.
- Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation.

The same math provides the Patriots with a 70% chance of winning.

With 2:00 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total WP for the 4th down conversion attempt would therefore be:

(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP

A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.

Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. However, these numbers are baselines for the league as a whole. You'd have to expect the Colts had a better than a 30% chance of scoring from their 34, and an accordingly higher chance to score from the Pats' 28. But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it. You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it's pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that make punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash.

[shel311]

- A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34.
- Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation

Is that adjusted for having about 1:50 and 1 timeout left?

[trendon]

- A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34.
- Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation

Is that adjusted for having about 1:50 and 1 timeout left?

Yeah, it factored in all of that.

[DRiccio21]

i dont think the call is HALF as bad as people are making it out to be. Jack Del Rio is a fucking genius b/c he told MJD to stop at the 1 when they were losing. We're praising him and abusing Belicek..

I think there's a HUGE difference between the 2.

I'd say the odds of the Jags not making or being able to attempt that FG with no time left are WAYYYYYYYYY lower than the odds of the Pats not converting a 4th and 2.

And this was evidenced by the Jets intentionally letting MJD score on that play. I assume that's what they were doing since thsoe 2 or 3 guys did nothing to try and stop it.

if the fg got blocked, he would have got fired... thats all i'm saying

[shel311]

i dont think the call is HALF as bad as people are making it out to be. Jack Del Rio is a fucking genius b/c he told MJD to stop at the 1 when they were losing. We're praising him and abusing Belicek..

I think there's a HUGE difference between the 2.

I'd say the odds of the Jags not making or being able to attempt that FG with no time left are WAYYYYYYYYY lower than the odds of the Pats not converting a 4th and 2.

And this was evidenced by the Jets intentionally letting MJD score on that play. I assume that's what they were doing since thsoe 2 or 3 guys did nothing to try and stop it.

if the fg got blocked, he would have got fired... thats all i'm saying

You're probably correct.


But as Trendon pointed out with his calculations, the odds of that happening are probably a whole lot lower than the odds of the Jets going down and scoring a TD in the final 2 minutes.

[trendon]

I would have to have numbers on the number of botched field goal attempts to know, but I am sure you are correct. You can't just look at field goals attempted from 19-29 yards out because what about botched snaps? You could guess and add 1% to the totals to factor that in.

That said, league-wide and game-wide (meaning, it does not account for teams playing prevent), a team will have a 20% chance of scoring a TD from their own 35, but only a 3% chance of scoring one in 40 seconds.

Either way, teams have a 0% chance of scoring if there is no time left, so that surely makes Del Rio's/Jones-Drew's decision a good one

[nick]

anyone else see Bruschi last night? dude was losing it over the call haha

[Uuaww]

As with all coaching decisions if it works, its the right one.

[ajalves]

anyone else see Bruschi last night? dude was losing it over the call haha

he was right too

Belicheck is supposedly a defensive guru as well.....pfft...so much for that

[trendon]

It was the right call, period. Punting in it of itself has a negative expected value.

[Matt90210]

It was the right call, period. Punting in it of itself has a negative expected value.

Exactly. Belichick is a genius and I love this call. I'm glad to see at least one coach in the NFL isn't a pussy and afraid to go against the grain.

Speaking of that, I'm seeing a lot of camel toe in this thread. Listening to Dilfer rant about the call is hilarious too. Don't worry Trent, ain't no coach going for it with you under center.