NDL Forum

nick wrote:Who votes JSence off the island....?

For what? Defending myself against the personal attack of an unstable member? For making valid points which are backed by stats and fact? For asking valid questions about things be needs to evaluate about himself?

He talks so much about his "system" and it's failing and he made a play that statistically and logically didn't make sense, and he goes on an insulting, bigoted tirade. If anybody was out of line, Nick, it sure as hell wasn't me--and anybody looking at it rationally and not biased would be hardpressed to disagree.

If you want him gone... say I


..


I

i want you gone.

so freaking annoying

DRiccio21 wrote:i want you gone.

so freaking annoying

aye

trendon wrote:Colts U 48.5

sorry about that fumble, tren, I'm sure jsence knew it was going to happen though

time for the dole approach because the homer can't even see what's going on in front of his average team

trendon wrote:Colts U 48.5

al michaels said its now over after that last touchdown was typical michaels vegas reference.

i don't even know why i continue, but it was on pace for 12 points after the first quarter, and 46 at halftime. Both are simple math.

Either would have covered my number, and you still think you had that locked up? UK got some big plays in the 3rd quarter and equaled their scoring in the first 30 minutes in a 15-minute span. That's what quality teams do, which UK is not, and even then watching that game anyone would say that they had no chance to hit that over barring some ridiculous plays.

The 28, 56 and 30-yard touchdowns in the 2nd half are not unheard of, but compared with the way the game was going you got extremely lucky.

If you continue to make wagers like that you won't be a winner, but that shouldn't be anything different than the program you follow or just your nature.

And I want to apologize for flying off the handle a bit, but I'm not sure you deserve it. I don't promote a "system" anywhere, I simply have a blog with my plays and you can see them if you'd like.

I'm currently 8-10 on the year, which is slightly above 31%, but I'm never going to tolerate you gloating about a bad beat. If you seriously don't recognize that as one of the luckiest wins you'll have this year, then there's not much to say. I'd give you a $10,000 limit right now if you want to take games over 50 when it's 3-0 after a quarter.

ReignOnU wrote:Shit trendon, I went Colts O 48.5. Gotta tell me earlier!

Glad I didn't listen to trendon! Damn, I got crazy lucky. Good little cash out to close the night.

I didnt post earlier, played 6 games today....

Carolina ML
KC +2
Wash +2.5 (ugh....this game i thought was in the bag)
Atlanta -5.5 (something like that) Atlanta at home vs the spread is lights out...
green bay -12.5
Indy -4.5

Good day for me, well taking 6 picks it was a good day. Good day for some of you i see which is great.

Nice to finally get back on top, onto week 3.....

VeniVediV1ci wrote:i don't even know why i continue, but it was on pace for 12 points after the first quarter, and 46 at halftime. Both are simple math.

Either would have covered my number, and you still think you had that locked up? UK got some big plays in the 3rd quarter and equaled their scoring in the first 30 minutes in a 15-minute span. That's what quality teams do, which UK is not, and even then watching that game anyone would say that they had no chance to hit that over barring some ridiculous plays.

The 28, 56 and 30-yard touchdowns in the 2nd half are not unheard of, but compared with the way the game was going you got extremely lucky.

If you continue to make wagers like that you won't be a winner, but that shouldn't be anything different than the program you follow or just your nature.

And I want to apologize for flying off the handle a bit, but I'm not sure you deserve it. I don't promote a "system" anywhere, I simply have a blog with my plays and you can see them if you'd like.

I'm currently 8-10 on the year, which is slightly above 31%, but I'm never going to tolerate you gloating about a bad beat. If you seriously don't recognize that as one of the luckiest wins you'll have this year, then there's not much to say. I'd give you a $10,000 limit right now if you want to take games over 50 when it's 3-0 after a quarter.

Apology accepted.

I saw your blog yesterday (you posted it in another thread where I teased you about not posting your picks) and I could've sworn it showed your NCAA picks at -15 units or something, and a low 30%. You've been at 50% or higher the other two years so I noticed it was much lower than normal.

Like I said, I watched the game from start to finish. The only time I started thinking we wouldn't get to the over was midway through the 4th--when Joker started calling dives and punting. We should've had multiple scores in the first quarter, but our guys were playing lazy (looking ahead to Florida maybe?) and once Joker lit into them between the 1st and 2nd quarters, we exploded and like I said....23 points after two, 43 points after three.....I'd have taken almost any bet that we would make the over.

But my original point was...why would you bet the under when we put up 68 points the week before against Western Kentucky, a team that, having seen both play, I would put money on beating Akron. It made no sense.

So I woke up this morning and I'm trying to figure out why I shouldn't lay the points and bet all of my winnings this weekend on New Orleans? I get the whole "SF is @ Home thing" but I watched that team last weekend... they are awful. There just doesn't seem anyway that NO doesn't cover that 5-6.

ReignOnU wrote:So I woke up this morning and I'm trying to figure out why I shouldn't lay the points and bet all of my winnings this weekend on New Orleans? I get the whole "SF is @ Home thing" but I watched that team last weekend... they are awful. There just doesn't seem anyway that NO doesn't cover that 5-6.

this post would be EXACTLY the reason you should take SF

DRiccio21 wrote:

ReignOnU wrote:So I woke up this morning and I'm trying to figure out why I shouldn't lay the points and bet all of my winnings this weekend on New Orleans? I get the whole "SF is @ Home thing" but I watched that team last weekend... they are awful. There just doesn't seem anyway that NO doesn't cover that 5-6.

this post would be EXACTLY the reason you should take SF

OR he could just be happy with his winnings and call it a week....

LoL, yeah, I've never learned my lesson about walking away ahead. It's much more fun to go for the grand slam.

I see what you're saying DR... every time I've had that kind of feeling, it's been busted. Going to think about it today, I did something pretty crazy last night that is sitting open right now and could net me +12 units anyway.

(4 team parlay Colts, Over, Saints, Over.)

jsence2 wrote:Apology accepted.

I saw your blog yesterday (you posted it in another thread where I teased you about not posting your picks) and I could've sworn it showed your NCAA picks at -15 units or something, and a low 30%. You've been at 50% or higher the other two years so I noticed it was much lower than normal.

Like I said, I watched the game from start to finish. The only time I started thinking we wouldn't get to the over was midway through the 4th--when Joker started calling dives and punting. We should've had multiple scores in the first quarter, but our guys were playing lazy (looking ahead to Florida maybe?) and once Joker lit into them between the 1st and 2nd quarters, we exploded and like I said....23 points after two, 43 points after three.....I'd have taken almost any bet that we would make the over.

But my original point was...why would you bet the under when we put up 68 points the week before against Western Kentucky, a team that, having seen both play, I would put money on beating Akron. It made no sense.

My main reasoning for the play was that I made the number lower, and I wasn't all that impressed with UK's offense against Louisville. I figured that the only way I lose was if UK went for a ton of points, which they did, but the main reasoning for actually going through with the play was UK's defense stopping Akron with their additional speed. Both teams were bad offensively until dive plays turned into big gainers for Kentucky, and when Akron couldn't sustain drives their defense had no chance. Still a bad beat, but those happen weekly to me so i'm getting used to them.

DRiccio21 wrote:

ReignOnU wrote:So I woke up this morning and I'm trying to figure out why I shouldn't lay the points and bet all of my winnings this weekend on New Orleans? I get the whole "SF is @ Home thing" but I watched that team last weekend... they are awful. There just doesn't seem anyway that NO doesn't cover that 5-6.

this post would be EXACTLY the reason you should take SF

+1

...and i would try to advise Reign to bet everything the same amount because there's no possible way anyone without utilizing some sort of model could know for certain that their 2/3/4/5-unit plays would hit at a higher percentage than their normal ones

Sometime I'm going to take the time to read up more on strats.

As of right now, I only adjust the number of units that I play based on how strongly I feel about the game. Generally speaking, I'll go through all of the lines and write down all of the plays I like. Then I rank them, based on my thoughts. So let's say I have 6 college games. I'll then evaluate those and decide if I like them enough to be a 4 unit, 3, 2, or just 1. I usually end up with something that looks like this:

Game #1 - 4/3
Game #2 - 3/2
Game #3 - 2
Game #4 - 2/1
Game #5 - 1
Game #6 - 1

Obviously the key is just hitting the #1 / #2 games, in which case I could save myself the hassle and increase my personal unit value and only play those games. But I like have a little action on games to keep them entertaining.

I would figure you would all say NO is for sure covering that 5 points. I went ahead and layed a small wager on it.

EDIT: Maybe I am mistaken but isnt NO a very capable road team.

stick to 1 unit plays and if you're really feeling good or on a roll then increase your unit size. don't start mixing up the units based on your opinions.

again. these are gambling 101 strategies.

the most important rules to know about gambling are:

1) only do it for fun, because no matter how much you think you know... you know nothing.
2) people rarely walk away a winner. by far the exception. its the principle that keeps casinos in business. you don't stop playing til you have no money left and even if you do walk away you'll keep coming back til you lose.
2a) the book always wins.
3) never chase