Vice City Files

[nick]

Sheltown v Miami in Win % overall by year. Red = Miami, Blue = Sheltown. Sheltown started so hot, when no one really knew the game, but as talent started to pour in the league he declined and flatlined. I started bad, didnt know shit, and as I learned i got better. And as u can see now we're similar.

If you go from 2029 on tho, I have like 120 more wins than Sheltown. ho hum.

[shel311]

You should consider changing the name of this thread to Sheltown Files.

[nick]

if we wanted an inferior product, sure.

added Washington for humbling reasons

[nick]

added Omaha so i can make fun of George

[nick]

Miami Vice PR - @VicePR - 2m
An early Christmas gift to the Vice fans as Miami has acquired IF Jeff Patterson from the Orange County Ducks for 3 minor league pitchers.

[dakshdar]

2058:
Winebrenner: $10.83M/WAR
Patterson: $13.77M/WAR

Betting on the comeback!

[nick]

depends which Patterson we get. I expect the one who showed up in OCD and that one hes worth about 6-7m/WAR which im fine with. I remember ppl chirping the Gonzales deal and he had a solid yr.

[dakshdar]

He's played (on average) 149 games per season in his career.

In OCD, for the regular season, he put up 0.3 WAR in 12 games.

That extrapolates to ~3.7 WAR for a season. Puts you up at $9.5 mil/WAR.

So, at least better than Winey.

It's actually interesting that Boston couldn't get more than $1 for him but OCD got three players from you. Unless those three players are worth $0 (could be?).

[nick]

why u do by games tho?

[nick]

i like to go by WAR/650PA, which thankfully Patterson has hit every yr before this one

Boston: 2.3 WAR/466 PA = 3.2 WAR/650 or $11 mil/war
OCD: 0.3 WAR/34 PA = 5.7 WAR/650 or $6.2 mil/war

before this yr

'57: 5.2WAR/650
'56: 7.8WAR/650
'55: 5.7 WAR/650
'54: 5.8WAR/650

in my lineup he'll be fine.

[dakshdar]

I don't (or wouldn't) go by WAR/650PA because it has the potential to be skewed by high production in a season shortened by an injury.

Plus, that's thinking in terms of max value when in reality you get the WAR you get based on how much the player actually plays.

And the OCD sample size is tiny compared to the Boston data.

Still interesting though - '56 seems like the outlier in an otherwise slow trend down - which is very odd for a young player but not unprecedented.

[nick]

wow people with small sample sizes could skew the results? shocking.

[dakshdar]

If you took your evaluation a step further and multiplied your WAR/650 PA calculation by the average number of PA a given player has had per year in their career, then you'd be evaluated their value based on an expected return vs a theoretical output that they may never reach because they may have never reached that number of PAs in a year.

[nick]

maybe if im lucky ill win as many games as you next yr. Thanks for the advice tho

[wdoupis]

maybe if im lucky ill win as many games as you next yr. Thanks for the advice tho

This is how you know Joe won that debate

[nick]

maybe if im lucky ill win as many games as you next yr. Thanks for the advice tho

This is how you know Joe won that debate

Just like your good call on Gonzales...

[shel311]

Is 2059 the year Miami returns from their 2 full decades of being irrelevant and a non-contender every season?



It IS exciting times in Miami!!!

[wdoupis]

I said he had a terrible contract and he does. Let’s give it more than one season

[nick]

I spent 66m on 3 ifas and not a peep. I trade for a proven elite player and get shredded. I'm getting our second banner rdy tho

[dakshdar]

maybe if im lucky ill win as many games as you next yr. Thanks for the advice tho

This is how you know Joe won that debate

We know Nick likes small sample sizes.